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Sunday, 08/04/2013
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Assessing Accuracy of Population Screening Using Longitudinal Marker
Paramita Saha-Chaudhuri, Duke University
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Small Area Prediction of the Mean of a Binomial Random Variable
Andreea Erciulescu, Iowa State University; Wayne Fuller, Iowa State University
2:20 PM
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Prediction and Computer Model Calibration with Multiple Simulators
Joslin Goh, Simon Fraser University
2:25 PM
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Validity Testing for Coverage Properties of Small-Area Models for Cell Proportions
Aaron Gilary, U.S. Census Bureau; Jerry Maples, US Census Bureau; Eric Victor Slud, US Census Bureau
2:35 PM
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Joint Inference of Baseline Hazard and Regression Coefficients in Cox-Like Models via Empirical Likelihood
Mai Zhou, Univ of Kentucky; Song Yang, NIH/NHLBI; Mi-Ok Kim, Cincinnati Children's Hospital
2:45 PM
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Estimation and Prediction in Spatial Models with Block Composite Likelihoods
Ryan J. Parker, North Carolina State University; Jo Eidsvik, Norwegian University of Science and Technology; Ben Shaby, UC - Berkeley; Brian J. Reich, North Carolina State University; Matthew Wheeler, University of California, Santa Barbara; Jarad Niemi, Iowa State University
2:55 PM
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A New Strategy for Predicting, Coding, and Gambling on Decaying Large Alphabets
Xiao Yang, Yale; Andrew Barron, Yale University
3:05 PM
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Statistical Methods for Integrative Genomics
Joseph Beyene, McMaster University
3:20 PM
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Comparing Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Generalized Prediction Problem Mean-Square Minimization Estimation on Time Series Data
Kevin Tolliver, U.S. Census Bureau; Tucker S. McElroy, U.S. Census Bureau
3:25 PM
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Prediction of Clinical Outcome Using Proteomic Mass Spectrometry Data
Bart Mertens, Leiden University Medical Centre
3:25 PM
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Stock Return Predictability with a Near-Random Walk Model: Evidence and Implications
Staffan Fredricsson
4:05 PM
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Prediction of Tumor Subtypes by Mixture Modeling of Somatic Mutation Profiles
Lin Hou, Yale School of Public Health; Hongyu Zhao, Yale University
4:05 PM
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Pilots' Absence Prediction in an Airline Company
Amir Hosein Homaie Shandizi; Bruno Agard, Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal; Michel Gamache, Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal; Vahid Partovi Nia, École Polytechnique Montréal
4:20 PM
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Losing $3 Million and Being Happy: A Tale of Money, Lives, and Prediction
Bruce Swihart, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health; Ciprian M. Crainiceanu, The Johns Hopkins University; Brian Caffo, Johns Hopkins University; Rafa Irizarry, JHSPH; Yingying Wei, JHSPH; Jeff Goldsmith, Columbia University; Russell Shinohara, Univ of Pennsylvania; Gagan Sidhu, University of Alberta
4:35 PM
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Variable Selection by Combinatorial Optimization, with Application to Pharmacogenomics
Joseph Levy, Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries; Amir Tchelet, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries
4:50 PM
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Recidivism: Prediction with Bayesian Models
Gail Blattenberger, University of Utah; Richard Fowles, Department of Economics
4:50 PM
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Statistical Issues in Development of a Predictive Model for Survival in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia
Minya Pu, University of California, San Diego, Moores UCSD Cancer Center; Hongying Li, University of California, San Diego, Moores UCSD Cancer Center ; Lei Bao, University of California, San Diego, Moores UCSD Cancer Center; Loki Natarajan, University of California San Diego; Laura Rassenti, University of California, San Diego, Moores UCSD Cancer Center; Thomas Kipps, University of California, San Diego, Moores UCSD Cancer Center; Karen Messer, University of California San Diego
5:05 PM
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Determining Multimodal Biomarkers for Neurodegenerative Diseases
DuBois Bowman, Emory University; Wenqiong Xue, Emory University
5:05 PM
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Validation and Use of a Parametric Model for Predicting Implant Survivorship Beyond Observed Data in Total Joint Arthroplasty
Katie Miller, Biomet Orthopedics
5:20 PM
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Estimating Biological Age Using Ensemble-Based Prediction Models
Wendy Shih; Steve Horvath, University of California, Los Angeles
5:20 PM
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Prediction Intervals for Generalized Linear Mixed Models
Chenghsueh Yang, University of California, Riverside; Daniel Jeske, University of California
5:20 PM
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Linking Brain Networks to Behavior with Subsampled Prediction and Stability Metrics
Stephen Strother, Rortman Research Institute, Baycrest
5:25 PM
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Quantile Regression in Improving the Visualization and Estimation of the Relationship Between Risk Factors and Outcome Measures
Wanying Li; Michael D. Lock, Crescendo Bioscience, Inc.; Douglas Haney, Crescendo Bioscience, Inc.
5:35 PM
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Monday, 08/05/2013
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Model Averaging Predictions Is Good; Model Averaging Multiple Regression Coefficients Is Bad
Philip Dixon, Iowa State Univ
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Predicting Owner Tendencies in Fantasy Football Drafts
Ivan Ramler, St. Lawrence University; Nobu Yamanashi, St. Lawrence University
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Boost Your Spatiotemporal Data Analysis with Physical Knowledge
Alexander Kolovos, SpaceTimeWorks, LLC
7:01 AM
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Challenges in Age-Period-Cohort Modeling of Breast Cancer Incidence
Ronald Gangnon, University of Wisconsin; Brian Sprague, University of Vermont; Natasha Stout, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care; Oguzhan Alagoz, University of Wisconsin; Amy Trentham-Dietz, University of Wisconsin
9:05 AM
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Combined Statistical Approaches for Comparing Performances of Two Independent Prediction Models
Hui Zhou, Kaiser Permanente; Jeff M Slezak, Southern California Permanante Medical Group; Stephen F. Derose, Southern California Permanente Medical Group; Don Morris, Archimedes; Anny H Xiang, Kaiser Permanente; Steve J. Jacobsen, Southern California Permanente Medical Group
9:30 AM
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Penalized Regression Approaches to Variable Selection in the Potential Outcomes Framework
Debashis Ghosh, Penn State University
9:35 AM
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Prediction Intervals for Future Order Statistics from Generalized Modified Weibull Distribution
Yuhlong Lio, University of South Dakota; Yu-Jau Lin, Chung Yuan Christian University; H. M. Okasha, Department of Statistics
9:35 AM
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Ecological Prediction with Nonlinear Multivariate Time-Frequency Functional Data Models
Christopher K. Wikle, University of Missouri; Wen-Hsi Yang, University of Missouri; Scott H. Holan, University of Missouri; Mark L. Wildhaber, U.S. Geological Survey
9:50 AM
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Nonparametric Adjustment for Measurement Error in Time-to-Event Data
Danielle Braun, Harvard University; Malka Gorfine, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology; Hormuzd Katki, National Cancer Institute; Giovanni Parmigiani, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute
9:50 AM
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Predicting Phenotypes of Arbitrary Related Individuals Using Penalized Maximum Likelihood Method
Xuesong Li, Oklahoma State University; Lan Zhu, Oklahoma State University
9:50 AM
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Prediction of Active Molecular Modules Through Integrated Expression Analysis
Christine Duarte, Maine Medical Center
10:05 AM
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An Alternative Sample Size Method for Training Survival Risk Predictors in High Dimensions
Kevin Dobbin, University of Georgia; Xiao Song, University of Georgia
10:35 AM
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Making Rules Human-Interpretable for Alarm Prediction in Sensor Network
Hongfei Li, IBM T. J. Watson Research; Buyue Qian, UC Davis; Dhaivat Parikh, IBM GBS; Arun Hampapur, IBM Research
10:35 AM
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Variable Length Markov Chains for Sequential Prediction in Dependence Time Series
Abraham J Wyner, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania; Joshua Magarick, University of Pennsylvania
10:35 AM
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The Reactive Point Process Model and Its Application to Electrical Grid Reliability
Seyda Ertekin, MIT; Tyler H. McCormick, University of Washington, Seattle; Cynthia Rudin, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
10:35 AM
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Regression When the Predictor may be Censored
David Oakes, Univ of Rochester Medical Center
11:15 AM
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The Superior Prediction Accuracy of the Random Generalized Linear Model Predictor (RandomGLM)
Lin Song, University of California, Los Angeles; Peter Langfelder, Genetics, UCLA; Steve Horvath, University of California, Los Angeles
2:20 PM
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Product Component Genealogy Modeling and Warranty Return Prediction
Caleb B. King, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; Yili Hong, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; William Q. Meeker, Iowa State University
2:35 PM
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Lower Prediction and Tolerance Bounds in Accelerated Life Testing for the Rayleigh Distribution
Ananda Jayawardhana, Pittsburg State University; Yang Song, Department of Statistics, University of Illinois Urbana-Champagne
2:50 PM
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Predicting Analysis Time in Event-Driven Clinical Trials When There Are Multiple Correlated Time-to-Event Endpoints
Jianming Wang, Celgene; Zhinuan Yu, Celgene
3:20 PM
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Risk Prediction in Consecutive Time-to-Event Outcome Subject to a Competing Event
Joanna Shih, National Cancer Institute; Paul Albert, NICHD
3:35 PM
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Tuesday, 08/06/2013
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Prediction Intervals for Non-Negative Series
Keith Ord, Georgetown Univ
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Prediction of Future Cost for Congestive Heart Failure Patients Using Heavy-Tailed Data
Jun Han, MEDai, a LexisNexis Company; Krassimir Latinski, Elsevier/MEDai
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Applications of Resampling and Bootstrap Methods to Estimate Prediction Intervals for Nonlinked Replicates in Method Comparison Studies
Maya Sternberg, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention; Sharon Flores, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
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Bayesian Decisive Prediction of the Future Optimal Cut-Off Score in Direct Marketing Using BLINEX Loss
Martin Levy, University of Cincinnati; ; Daling Wen, Genworth
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Validation of Prediction Models in the Presence of Missing Data
Yuanyuan Guo, Baylor University; Dean M. Young, Baylor University
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For Complex Data, Let's Give Up on Interpretability
Bertrand Clarke, Univ. Miami; Jennifer Clarke, University of Miami; Camillo Valdes, University of Miami
8:35 AM
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A Bayesian Prediction Model of Severe Intra-Ventricular Hemorrhage in Very Pre-Term Infants
Michael Anderson, The University of Oklahoma; Suzanne Dubnicka, Department of Statistics, Kansas State University; Shahab Noori, Newborn and Infant Critical Care, Children's Hospital Los Angeles
9:05 AM
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Balancing Use of Weights, Predictions, and Locality Effects in a Model-Assisted Constrained Hot Deck Approach for Perturbation
Tom Krenzke, Westat; Jianzhu Li, Westat; Laura Zayatz, U.S. Census Bureau
9:35 AM
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Modeling Visual Cortex V4 in Naturalistic Conditions with Invariant and Sparse Image Representations
Bin Yu, Univ of California at Berkeley; Julien Mairal, Inria, Grunobel; Yuval Benjamini, UC Berkeley, Statistics; Michael Oliver, UC Berkeley, Neuroscience; Ben Willmore, Oxfored, Neuroscience; Jack Gallant, UC Berkeley, Neuroscience
10:35 AM
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Impact of Monitoring Network Design on Exposure Prediction and Measurement Error
Adel Lee; Lianne Sheppard, University of Washington, Department of Biostatistics
10:50 AM
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Statistical Approach for Prediction, Validation, and Creation of a Simple Score: An Application to a Neurocritical Care Study
Jayawant Mandrekar, Mayo Clinic
11:05 AM
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Bias in CMAQ Prediction for Ozone Concentration
Ryan Durden, NC State University; Sarah Cummings, North Carolina State University
11:05 AM
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Locally Epistatic Relationship Matrices for Genome-Wide Association and Prediction
Deniz Akdemir, Cornell University
11:15 AM
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Statistical Inference When Fitting Simple Models to High-Dimensional Data
Lukas Steinberger, Department of Statistics and OR, University of Vienna; Hannes Leeb, Department of Statistics and OR, University of Vienna
11:20 AM
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Variable Selection for Big Data via Bagging Adaptive Lasso and Precision Shrinking
Cory Lanker, Iowa State University of Science and Technology; Wen Zhou, Iowa State University; Max Morris, Iowa State University; Stephen Bruce Vardeman, Iowa State University; Huaiqing Wu, Iowa State University
11:20 AM
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Variable Importance and Prediction Methods for Longitudinal Problems with Missing Variables
Ivan Diaz, UC Berkeley; Alan Hubbard, UC Berkeley; Anna Decker, UC Berkeley; Mitch Cohen, UCSF
11:35 AM
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A Joint Survival-Longitudinal Modelling Approach for the Dynamic Prediction of Rehospitalization in Telemonitored Chronic Heart Failure Patients
Edmund Njeru Njagi, I-Biostat, Hasselt University, Belgium; Dimitris Rizopoulos, Erasmus MC; Geert Molenberghs, Universiteit Hasselt & Katholieke Universiteit Leuven; Paul Dendale, Jessa Hospital, Heart Centre Hasselt, Belgium; Koen Willekens, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Faculty of Medicine, Belgium
11:50 AM
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Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Conditional Heteroskedastic Models with Cyclically Varying Unconditional Variance
Malaka Thilakaratne, Missouri University of Science & Technology; V A Samaranayake, Missouri University of Science and Technology
11:50 AM
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Risk Prediction from Electronic Health Record Data: A Naïve Bayes Approach
Julian Wolfson, University of Minnesota
12:05 PM
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Recent Advances in Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data
Dimitris Rizopoulos, Erasmus MC
12:31 PM
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Bayesian Methods Developments in Microsimulation
Laura Hatfield, Harvard Medical School
2:05 PM
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Assessment of Biomarker Prediction Accuracy Under Marker-Dependent Sampling
Xiaofei Wang, Duke University Medical Center; Junling Ma, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics; Stephen George, Duke University Medical Center
2:25 PM
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Locally Smoothed Statistical Learning for Age-Dependent Classification and Disease Risk Prediction
Huaihou Chen, New York University; Tianle Chen, Columbia University; Donglin Zeng, The University of North Carolina; Yuanjia Wang, Columbia University
2:30 PM
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Extrapolation of Cell Line Chemosensitivity Data for Clinical Prediction
Ker-Chau Li, Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica; Yi-Chiung Hsu, Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica
2:35 PM
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Optimal Predictions in Mixed-Effects Hurdle Models
Eva Cantoni, Dpt of Economics, University of Geneva; Joanna Mills Flemming, Dpt. Of Mathematics, Dalhousie University; Alan Welsh, Centre for Mathematics and its Applications, Australian National University
3:05 PM
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Teaching Data Mining and Predictive Analytics to Undergraduates
Brant Deppa, Winona State University
3:05 PM
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C-Optimal Designs of Experiments for Estimation in Simplex Dispersion Model
Mong-Na Lo Huang, National Sun Yat-Sen University; Hsiang-Ling Hsu, Academia Sinica
3:20 PM
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A Bootstrap Approach for Pharmaceutical Accelerated Stability Prediction
Zhewen Fan, Abbvie
3:35 PM
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Wednesday, 08/07/2013
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Prediction and Variable Importance in the Prospective, Observational, Multi-Center Massive Transfusion Study (PROMMTT)
Ivan Diaz, UC Berkeley; Anna Decker, UC Berkeley; Alan Hubbard, UC Berkeley; Ivan Diaz, UC Berkeley; Mitch Cohen, UCSF
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Reliability Prediction of Systems with Recurrent Failures and a Specified Set of Covariates
Nasser Fard, Northeastern University; Alexandre Mendes, Northeastern University
8:50 AM
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Kernel Machine Collapsing--Based Prediction for Ordinal Outcome
Yuanyuan Shen, Harvard University; Tianxi Cai, Harvard University
8:50 AM
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Hidden Heritability and Risk-Prediction Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies
Nilanjan Chatterjee, National Cancer Institute; JuHyun Park, National Cancer Instutute; Joshua Sampson, DCEG, National Cancer Institute
9:00 AM
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Case-Control Sampling for Brain Imaging and Enhancement Prediction
Gina-Maria Pomann, North Carolina State University; Russell Shinohara, Univ of Pennsylvania; Ana-Maria Staicu, North Carolina State University; Elizabeth Sweeney, Johns Hopkins University; Daniel Reich, National Institute of Neurological Disorders & Stroke
9:05 AM
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Supervised Learning and Prediction of Spatial Epidemics
Gyanendra Pokharel, University of Guelph; Rob Deardon, University of Guelph
9:20 AM
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Single-Index Model with Diverging Number of Index Parameters
Guannan Wang, University of Georgia; Lily Wang, The University of Georgia
9:35 AM
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Likelihood Inference in Small-Area Estimation Using P-Spline and Time Series Models
Farhad Shokoohi, University of Manitoba; Mahmoud Torabi, University of Manitoba
9:35 AM
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Long-Term Survival Probabilities and Kaplan-Meier Estimator
Jean-Marie TRICOT, University of South Brittany; Ion Grama, University of South Brittany; Jean-Francois Petiot, University of South Brittany
9:50 AM
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Spatial Prediction Using Multivariate Data Structures
Alix I. Gitelman, Department of Statistics, Oregon State University; Xuan Che, Oregon State University; Kathryn Irvine, USGS
10:55 AM
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Estimation of Smoothness of a Stationary Gaussian Random Field
Wei-Ying Wu, National Dong Hwa University; Chae Young Lim, Michigan State
11:50 AM
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Assessing Quantile Prediction with Censored Quantile Regression Models
Ruosha Li, University of Pittsburgh; Limin Peng, Emory University
12:05 PM
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Predictor Selection for Non-Negative Autoregressive Processes
Chiao-Yi Yang, Institute of Statistical Science Academia Sinica; Ching-Kang Ing, Institute of Statistical Science Academia Sinica, Taiwan
2:05 PM
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Inference for Survival Prediction in the High-Dimensional Setting
Jennifer Sinnott, Harvard University; Tianxi Cai, Harvard University
2:20 PM
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Is It MAR or NMAR?
Michael Sverchkov, US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Danny Pfeffermann, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel and University of Southampton, United Kingdom
2:25 PM
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A Two-Step Feature Selection Strategy for Large-Scale High-Dimensional Genetic Risk Prediction
Zhi Wei, New Jersey Institute of Technology; Wei Wang, New Jersey Institute of Technology
2:25 PM
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Statistical Postprocessing of Numerical Weather Predictions Using a Stochastic Advection-Diffusion Model
Hans Rudolf Kunsch, Seminar fur Statistik, ETH Zurich; Fabio Sigrist, Seminar fur Statistik, ETH Zurich; Werner A. Stahel, Seminar fur Statistik, ETH Zurich
2:35 PM
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Impact of Borrowing Historical Information in Group Sequential Trials
Soumi Lahiri, GlaxoSmithKline
2:45 PM
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A Statistical Method for Predicting Clinical Outcomes Using Resting-State fMRI
Ying Guo, Emory University; Tian Dai, Emory University
2:45 PM
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Improving Genetic Risk Prediction by Leveraging Pleiotropy
Cong Li, Yale University; Jia Kang, Merck; Can Yang, Yale University; Hongyu Zhao, Yale University
2:45 PM
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Penalized Regression and Prediction of Disease Outcomes
Erin Austin, University of Minnesota - Division of Biostatistics; Wei Pan, University of Minnesota; Xiaotong Shen, University of Minnesota
3:05 PM
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Enhancement of AFP-Based Prediction of Onset of HCC by Using Other Laboratory Values
Peter Richardson, U. S. Veterans Health Admin
3:20 PM
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Paradigm of Genetic Risk Prediction: Variable Selection or Mixed Model
Peng Wei, Univeristy of Texas School of Public Health
3:25 PM
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Thursday, 08/08/2013
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Nonparametric Small-Area Estimation
Mahmoud Torabi, University of Manitoba; Farhad Shokoohi, University of Manitoba
8:35 AM
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Random Forest Models for Patient-Level Clinical Risk Prediction in Risk-Adjusted Hospital Outcome Reporting
Milan C Seth, University of Michigan, BMC2 Clinical collaborative; Hitinder Gurm, University of Michigan
8:35 AM
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Recent Advances in Claims Data--Based Total Health Care Cost Prediction
Donghui Wu, Elsevier/MEDai Inc.; Emad El-Sebakhy, Elsevier/MEDai Inc.; Krassimir Latinski, Elsevier/MEDai; Jun Han, MEDai, a LexisNexis Company; Ognian Asparouhov, Elsevier/MEDai Inc.
8:35 AM
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Impact of Correlation on Predictive Ability of a Biomarker
Olga Demler, BWH; Michael Pencina, Boston University; Ralph D'Agostino, Sr., Boston University
8:50 AM
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Survival Prediction and Variable Selection with Simultaneous Shrinkage and Grouping Priors for Gene Expression Microarray Data
Sounak Chakraborty, University of Missouri-Columbia; Kyu Ha Lee , Harvard School of Public Health ; Jianguo Sun, University of Missouri-Columbia
8:55 AM
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Variable Selection and Prediction Using a Nested, Matched Case-Control Study: Application to Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia in Stroke Patients
Jing Qian, University of Massachusetts; Payabvash, Massachusetts General Hospital; Andre Kemmling, Massachusetts General Hospital; Michael Lev, Massachusetts General Hospital; Lee Schwamm, Massachusetts General Hospital; Rebecca A. Betensky, Harvard School of Public Health
8:55 AM
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RNA Profiling: A New Approach to 'Denoising' Secondary Structure Prediction
Christine Heitsch, Georgia Institute of Technology
8:55 AM
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Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Factor Models
Silvia Goncalves, Universite de Montreal
9:15 AM
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Selection of Shrinkage Estimators for Prediction Out-of-Sample
Nina Senitschnig; Hannes Leeb, Department of Statistics and OR, University of Vienna
9:20 AM
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Implementation of Parametric and Nonparametric Models for Genomic-Assisted Selection in Plant Breeding
Reka Howard, Iowa State University; Alicia Carriquiry, Iowa State University; William Beavis, Iowa State University
9:20 AM
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Models for Hantavirus Incidence in Chile
Elaine O. Nsoesie, Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Children's Hospital Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Sumiko R. Mekaru, Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Children's Hospital Boston, Massachusetts, USA; John S. Brownstein, Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Children's Hospital Boston, Massachusetts, USA
9:20 AM
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A Bayesian Model for Poisson Processes for Power Prediction with ChIP-Seq Data
Chen Zuo, U of Wisconsin Madison; Sunduz Keles, University of Wisconsin Madison
10:05 AM
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Statistical Prediction for Virginia Lyme Disease Emergence Based on Spatial-Temporal Count Data
Yuanyuan Duan, Virginia Tech; Jie Li, Virginia Tech; Yili Hong, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; Korine N. Kolivras, Virginia Tech; Stephen P. Prisley, Virginia Tech; James B. Campbell, Virginia Tech; David N. Gaines, Virginia Department of Health
10:05 AM
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Link Prediction and Missing Data in Social Network Surveys: An Initial Exploration
Taniecea Arceneaux, U.S. Census Bureau; Burton H. Singer, University of Florida, Emerging Pathogens Institute
10:35 AM
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Data Analysis for Strange Attractors
Michael Luvalle
10:55 AM
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A Population Dynamic Model for Smoking Prevalence, Mortality Prediction
Tom Lu, FDA/CTP
11:35 AM
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